![]() More positively, the West’s response to the invasion has exceeded expectations and broken taboos. The Quad meeting of foreign ministers in Melbourne last month (Ron Przysucha/ US State Department) Still, Beijing and Taipei will both be learning what they can from the Ukraine conflict, and China might choose to test the United States in some way at this point of vulnerability. ![]() ![]() And Beijing also knows that Taiwan is strategically important to the United States and its allies in a way that Ukraine is not. China still wants to win without fighting, even as it piles more military pressure on Taipei. ![]() None of this will necessarily accelerate a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Still, the net result of the conflict might well be an even tighter and more dangerous Sino-Russian partnership aimed at weakening American power and neutering Western alliances. The Sino-Russian joint statement made no mention of Ukraine and Beijing has been obfuscating since the invasion. More concerning is the “no limits” partnership announced by Putin and Xi Jinping at the Beijing Winter Olympics, which opposed NATO expansion and the US Indo-Pacific strategy alike. Australia has enormous interests in ensuring that this is a make rather than break moment for the Biden administration. The task for America’s partners is to step up and help as much as they can, with Ukraine and in the Indo-Pacific. It’s also pointless: the United States will always have global interests. Worrying about a temporary loss of American focus on the Indo-Pacific is morally and strategically wrong-headed. A Russian fait accompli in Ukraine would also boost the idea that might makes right in international affairs.įor Australia, there are many threats in this crisis but also, perhaps, some opportunities. Vladimir Putin’s ruthless bid to erase Ukraine’s nationhood and redraw the map in Europe is a direct attack on the foundations of the post-war rules-based order, from which Australia has benefitted more than most. ![]()
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